TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080363
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511118112911111
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 80 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Michal Macurak at 62.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 12–6 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Macurak
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1675 vs Pawlik 1510
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 80% vs Pawlik 60%
Macurak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Pawlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +4 · Pawlik +1
Macurak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.53 / Pawlik 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Macurak)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13080363
Macurak1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 64 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it69% 40 of 58
Pawlik2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 57 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak6wins
AwayPawlik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak80%4 of 5
AwayPawlik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Macurak7Pawlik3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S3Macurak6Pawlik4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak4Pawlik2n = 6Macurak took 4 of 6
S5Macurak1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakPawlikM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.434.3+2.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 460 vs 222 / 44750.7%49.7%233 / 460 vs 222 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.53/Pawlik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak—511119113D. Pawlik—11821112
WAug 23 · 17:08M. Macurak—1113133D. Pawlik—811110
WAug 23 · 16:10M. Macurak—1111113D. Pawlik—8940
WJul 29 · 07:15M. Macurak—81111113D. Pawlik—116581
LJul 24 · 09:09M. Macurak—11151152D. Pawlik—711118113
LJul 24 · 07:45M. Macurak—8790D. Pawlik—1111113
WJun 18 · 06:45M. Macurak—1111113D. Pawlik—9680
WMay 22 · 11:10M. Macurak—11114113D. Pawlik—841151
LMay 9 · 09:20M. Macurak—611641D. Pawlik—11811113
LMay 9 · 06:15M. Macurak—1014121152D. Pawlik—1216107113
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112LSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113
D. Pawlik10
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191
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