TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086327
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113101211612141513
Jakub Travnicek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jakub Travnicek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 107 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Michal Macurak at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 10–7 Jakub Travnicek Jakub Travnicek has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Macurak
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1665 vs Travnicek 1622
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 40% vs Travnicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Travnicek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -2 · Travnicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.73 / Travnicek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Macurak)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13086327
Macurak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 61 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it68% 38 of 56
Travnicek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 66 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back31% 25 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak7wins
AwayTravnicek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak85.7%6 of 7
AwayTravnicek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak7Travnicek3n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S2Macurak8Travnicek2n = 10Macurak took 8 of 10
S3Macurak4Travnicek6n = 10Travnicek took 6 of 10
S4Macurak4Travnicek4n = 8split evenly
S5Macurak2Travnicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakTravnicekM − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.040.4+4.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakTravnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 459 vs 198 / 40050.5%49.5%232 / 459 vs 198 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.73/Travnicek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak—11101112153J. Travnicek—312614132
LJul 30 · 20:15M. Macurak—111110992J. Travnicek—981211113
WJul 14 · 17:40M. Macurak—11119133J. Travnicek—8711111
WJun 25 · 21:13M. Macurak—111168113J. Travnicek—67111182
WJun 25 · 20:10M. Macurak—11117113J. Travnicek—841171
WMay 6 · 20:45M. Macurak—1112113J. Travnicek—71070
LMay 6 · 19:15M. Macurak—8111110132J. Travnicek—114912153
LApr 25 · 16:15M. Macurak—510110J. Travnicek—1112133
WApr 24 · 20:10M. Macurak—91122113J. Travnicek—1172091
WFeb 7 · 20:15M. Macurak—111111113J. Travnicek—981371
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112LSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112
J. Travnicek10
LSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462WSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113WSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110LSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590LSep 4 · 19:15J. Travnicek2.25751611102D. Skulina1.571111148123WSep 4 · 17:45I. Heuman2.00811961J. Travnicek1.7311611113LSep 2 · 21:20J. Travnicek1.6761070I. Heuman2.101112113WSep 2 · 20:15I. Heuman2.003119101J. Travnicek1.7311711123LSep 2 · 19:15J. Travnicek1.571457131A. Cizek2.25121111153
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