TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076586
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Travnicek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71151116141181012
David Skulina
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Skulina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Travnicek above · David Skulina below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 105 set 5, 10-12 — our read held David Skulina at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Travnicek 3–3 David Skulina Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skulina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Travnicek 1611 vs Skulina 1629
Skulina
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Travnicek 60% vs Skulina 80%
Skulina
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Travnicek 70% vs Skulina 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Travnicek +1 · Skulina +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Skulina) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skulina form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTravnicek 2.25 / Skulina 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Skulina)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13076586
Travnicek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 66 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Skulina1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 22 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 18 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTravnicek3wins
AwaySkulina3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTravnicekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySkulina60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Travnicek1Skulina5n = 6Skulina took 5 of 6
S2Travnicek4Skulina2n = 6Travnicek took 4 of 6
S3Travnicek2Skulina4n = 6Skulina took 4 of 6
S4Travnicek3Skulina2n = 5Travnicek took 3 of 5
S5Travnicek2Skulina1n = 3Travnicek took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricTravnicekSkulinaT − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match42.042.00.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTravnicekSkulinaBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 394 vs 70 / 13849.5%50.7%195 / 394 vs 70 / 138Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkulinaTravnicek 2.25/Skulina 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Skulina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skulina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 2 · 17:45J. Travnicek—1111158113D. Skulina—139131182
LAug 20 · 21:05J. Travnicek—5411101D. Skulina—11113123
WAug 20 · 17:40J. Travnicek—9111011133D. Skulina—118128112
LMay 3 · 20:45J. Travnicek—9860D. Skulina—1111113
LMay 3 · 17:45J. Travnicek—611811122D. Skulina—119115143
WJan 12 · 19:40J. Travnicek—11118113D. Skulina—681131
J. Travnicek10
LSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462WSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132WSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110LSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590WSep 4 · 17:45I. Heuman2.00811961J. Travnicek1.7311611113LSep 2 · 21:20J. Travnicek1.6761070I. Heuman2.101112113WSep 2 · 20:15I. Heuman2.003119101J. Travnicek1.7311711123LSep 2 · 19:15J. Travnicek1.571457131A. Cizek2.25121111153
D. Skulina10
WSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113LSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113LSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113WSep 4 · 21:10D. Skulina1.5761111153K. Kleprlik2.251177131LSep 4 · 19:45I. Heuman1.9111143113D. Skulina1.809121161WSep 4 · 18:15D. Skulina1.6161114113K. Kleprlik2.201141291WSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681LSep 4 · 16:15D. Skulina1.6196100K. Kleprlik2.201111123WSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123
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