TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086320
Played Sep 6Finished
David Skulina
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121311311117811
Patrik Marsalek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Skulina to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Skulina above · Patrik Marsalek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held David Skulina at 68.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H David Skulina 2–1 Patrik Marsalek Patrik Marsalek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Skulina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skulina 1607 vs Marsalek 1506
Skulina
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skulina 80% vs Marsalek 20%
Skulina
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skulina 80% vs Marsalek 30%
Skulina
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skulina +1 · Marsalek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Skulina) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkulina 1.50 / Marsalek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Skulina)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13086320
Skulina1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Marsalek2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 18 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkulina2wins
AwayMarsalek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSkulina leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skulina2Marsalek1n = 3Skulina took 2 of 3
S2Skulina3Marsalek0n = 3Skulina took 3 of 3
S3Skulina2Marsalek1n = 3Skulina took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkulinaMarsalekS − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.331.7+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkulinaMarsalekBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 145 vs 49 / 10650.3%46.2%73 / 145 vs 49 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkulinaSkulina 1.50/Marsalek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Skulina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 6 · 20:48D. Skulina—1111123P. Marsalek—58100
LSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina—101331182P. Marsalek—1211117113
WAug 20 · 18:40D. Skulina—1111113P. Marsalek—6950
D. Skulina10
WSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113LSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113WSep 4 · 21:10D. Skulina1.5761111153K. Kleprlik2.251177131LSep 4 · 19:45I. Heuman1.9111143113D. Skulina1.809121161WSep 4 · 19:15J. Travnicek2.25751611102D. Skulina1.571111148123WSep 4 · 18:15D. Skulina1.6161114113K. Kleprlik2.201141291WSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681LSep 4 · 16:15D. Skulina1.6196100K. Kleprlik2.201111123WSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123
P. Marsalek10
LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek1.73715851D. Vitasek2.00111311113WAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.61115118102P. Marsalek2.20911811123
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