Jakub Travnicek vs Patrik Marsalek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13086325

Played Sep 6Finished

Jakub Travnicek

Home

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1199111181214116

Patrik Marsalek

Away

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%

Graded at full time

Jakub Travnicek to win

55.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingJakub Travnicek above · Patrik Marsalek below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 12-14

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 102 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Travnicek at 55.6%

102 points played in total.

H2H Jakub Travnicek 3–3 Patrik Marsalek Dead even across their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 3–3Head to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 06:38

What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Travnicek

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

3-3 in 6

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Travnicek 1614 vs Marsalek 1525

Travnicek

Correct

both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Travnicek 40% vs Marsalek 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Travnicek 50% vs Marsalek 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Travnicek +1 · Marsalek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Travnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Travnicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsTravnicek 1.73 / Marsalek 2.00

Signal prob.57% / 44%

Edge (Travnicek)+2.8pp

TT Cup · #13086325

Travnicek1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite44% won 38 of 86

Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18

Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42

Marsalek2.00

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog46% won 18 of 39

Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22

Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeTravnicek3wins

AwayMarsalek3wins

1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeTravnicek66.7%2 of 3

AwayMarsalek66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Travnicek3Marsalek3n = 6split evenly

S2Travnicek4Marsalek2n = 6Travnicek took 4 of 6

S3Travnicek4Marsalek2n = 6Travnicek took 4 of 6

S4Travnicek2Marsalek3n = 5Marsalek took 3 of 5

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home117%

3–1Four sets, home233%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away117%

1–3Four sets, away233%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 6 meetings

MetricTravnicekMarsalekT − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.238.0−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricTravnicekMarsalekBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 399 vs 49 / 10449.4%47.1%197 / 399 vs 49 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Travnicek

Travnicek 1.73/Marsalek 2.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

56.5%

Travnicek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Travnicek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record6

WAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek—11157113P. Marsalek—7131161

WAug 26 · 20:45J. Travnicek—51111113P. Marsalek—115881

LAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek—115118102P. Marsalek—911811123

WAug 20 · 20:10J. Travnicek—1111113P. Marsalek—9580

LAug 6 · 20:15J. Travnicek—411961P. Marsalek—11911113

LAug 3 · 18:10J. Travnicek—4101271P. Marsalek—111210113

J. Travnicek10

LSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991 WSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113 LSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132 WSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110 LSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590 LSep 4 · 19:15J. Travnicek2.25751611102D. Skulina1.571111148123 WSep 4 · 17:45I. Heuman2.00811961J. Travnicek1.7311611113 LSep 2 · 21:20J. Travnicek1.6761070I. Heuman2.101112113 WSep 2 · 20:15I. Heuman2.003119101J. Travnicek1.7311711123 LSep 2 · 19:15J. Travnicek1.571457131A. Cizek2.25121111153

P. Marsalek10

LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123 LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113 WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113 LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113 WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722 LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831 LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161 LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113 LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek1.73715851D. Vitasek2.00111311113 WAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.61115118102P. Marsalek2.20911811123

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