Patrik Marsalek vs Ivan Heuman 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13035077

Played Aug 28Finished

Patrik Marsalek

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

411112511117112

Ivan Heuman

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:21 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%

Graded at full time

Ivan Heuman to win

57.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Ivan Heuman below

Set 1 · 4-11

Set 2 · 11-2

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 11-7

Set 5 · 11-2

Point 75 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 57.7%

75 points played in total.

H2H Patrik Marsalek 1–2 Ivan Heuman Patrik Marsalek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 1–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 10:21

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Heuman

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

1-2 in 3

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marsalek 1519 vs Heuman 1497

Marsalek

Correct

both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marsalek 20% vs Heuman 40%

Heuman

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marsalek 30% vs Heuman 20%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Marsalek -4 · Heuman -3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Heuman) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Heuman form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarsalek 2.10 / Heuman 1.67

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Heuman)+0.0pp

TT Cup · #13035077

Marsalek2.10

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog51% won 19 of 37

Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21

Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12

Heuman1.67

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite45% won 46 of 102

Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26

Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeMarsalek1wins

AwayHeuman2wins

1 of 3 to a deciderHeuman leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marsalek2Heuman1n = 3Marsalek took 2 of 3

S2Marsalek1Heuman2n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3

S3Marsalek0Heuman3n = 3Heuman took 3 of 3

S4Marsalek1Heuman2n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home133%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away267%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 3 meetings

MetricMarsalekHeumanM − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.738.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarsalekHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 102 vs 184 / 37747.1%48.8%48 / 102 vs 184 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Heuman

Marsalek 2.10/Heuman 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

55.8%

Heuman · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Marsalek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record3

LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek—117851I. Heuman—91111113

WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek—411511113I. Heuman—11211722

LAug 10 · 20:15P. Marsalek—119981I. Heuman—61111113

P. Marsalek10

LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123 LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462 LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113 WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113 LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113 LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831 LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161 LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113 LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek1.73715851D. Vitasek2.00111311113 WAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.61115118102P. Marsalek2.20911811123

I. Heuman10

LSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113 LSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132 WSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162 WSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113 LSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110 WSep 4 · 19:45I. Heuman1.9111143113D. Skulina1.809121161 LSep 4 · 18:45I. Heuman1.809111410122K. Kleprlik1.911141212143 LSep 4 · 17:45I. Heuman2.00811961J. Travnicek1.7311611113 WSep 2 · 21:20J. Travnicek1.6761070I. Heuman2.101112113 WAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113

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