TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086322
Played Sep 6Finished
Patrik Marsalek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911118311––
Michal Macurak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Michal Macurak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 72 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Michal Macurak at 59.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 4–6 Michal Macurak Patrik Marsalek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Macurak
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1533 vs Macurak 1648
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 40% vs Macurak 60%
Macurak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 40% vs Macurak 60%
Macurak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek +1 · Macurak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 2.20 / Macurak 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Macurak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13086322
Marsalek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 18 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Macurak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 61 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it68% 38 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarsalek4wins
AwayMacurak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarsalek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMacurak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek6Macurak4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S2Marsalek4Macurak6n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S3Marsalek6Macurak4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S4Marsalek1Macurak4n = 5Macurak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarsalekMacurakMarsalek − MacurakBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.734.9−1.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekMacurakBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 103 vs 230 / 45747.6%50.3%49 / 103 vs 230 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMarsalek 2.20/Macurak 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 14:10P. Marsalek—4840M. Macurak—1111103
WApr 26 · 17:20P. Marsalek—1317113M. Macurak—111580
LApr 26 · 14:10P. Marsalek—114681M. Macurak—41111113
WMar 22 · 21:40P. Marsalek—1111113M. Macurak—7870
LMar 22 · 20:10P. Marsalek—118119102M. Macurak—811511123
WMar 19 · 08:45P. Marsalek—11611113M. Macurak—611991
LMar 12 · 20:40P. Marsalek—107100M. Macurak—1211123
WMar 6 · 14:25P. Marsalek—1111123M. Macurak—97100
LMar 6 · 11:45P. Marsalek—611991M. Macurak—11711113
LJan 9 · 11:40P. Marsalek—881171M. Macurak—11118113
P. Marsalek10
LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek1.73715851D. Vitasek2.00111311113WAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.61115118102P. Marsalek2.20911811123
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112LSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112
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