TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017779
Played Aug 26Finished
Jakub Travnicek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111188111012
Patrik Marsalek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:56 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Travnicek to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Travnicek above · Patrik Marsalek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Travnicek at 58.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Travnicek 2–3 Patrik Marsalek Jakub Travnicek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Travnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Travnicek 1509 vs Marsalek 1532
Marsalek
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Travnicek 20% vs Marsalek 40%
Marsalek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Travnicek 30% vs Marsalek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Travnicek -4 · Marsalek +1
Travnicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Travnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Travnicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTravnicek 1.61 / Marsalek 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Travnicek)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13017779
Travnicek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite42% won 34 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it68% 25 of 37
Marsalek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeTravnicek2wins
AwayMarsalek3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMarsalek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTravnicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarsalek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Travnicek2Marsalek3n = 5Marsalek took 3 of 5
S2Travnicek3Marsalek2n = 5Travnicek took 3 of 5
S3Travnicek4Marsalek1n = 5Travnicek took 4 of 5
S4Travnicek1Marsalek3n = 4Marsalek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricTravnicekMarsalekT − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.838.2−2.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTravnicekMarsalekBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 381 vs 47 / 9848.6%48%185 / 381 vs 47 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TravnicekTravnicek 1.61/Marsalek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Travnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 26 · 20:45J. Travnicek—51111113P. Marsalek—115881
LAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek—115118102P. Marsalek—911811123
WAug 20 · 20:10J. Travnicek—1111113P. Marsalek—9580
LAug 6 · 20:15J. Travnicek—411961P. Marsalek—11911113
LAug 3 · 18:10J. Travnicek—4101271P. Marsalek—111210113
J. Travnicek10
LSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462WSep 6 · 18:40D. Skulina1.674770J. Travnicek2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132WSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110LSep 4 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.671111113J. Travnicek2.108590LSep 4 · 19:15J. Travnicek2.25751611102D. Skulina1.571111148123WSep 4 · 17:45I. Heuman2.00811961J. Travnicek1.7311611113LSep 2 · 21:20J. Travnicek1.6761070I. Heuman2.101112113WSep 2 · 20:15I. Heuman2.003119101J. Travnicek1.7311711123
P. Marsalek10
LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek1.73715851D. Vitasek2.00111311113
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