TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017771
Played Aug 26Finished
Patrik Marsalek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111513811511––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Marsalek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 81 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Patrik Marsalek at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 4–6 Daniel Vitasek Patrik Marsalek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marsalek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Vitasek
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1557 vs Vitasek 1539
Marsalek
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Marsalek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 30% vs Vitasek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek +2 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marsalek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 1.73 / Vitasek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marsalek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13017771
Marsalek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 14 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Vitasek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 106 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarsalek4wins
AwayVitasek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarsalek100%4 of 4
AwayVitasek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S2Marsalek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Marsalek7Vitasek3n = 10Marsalek took 7 of 10
S4Marsalek1Vitasek5n = 6Vitasek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarsalekVitasekM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.8−0.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 96 vs 285 / 58949%48.4%47 / 96 vs 285 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarsalekMarsalek 1.73/Vitasek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marsalek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 20:35P. Marsalek—19100D. Vitasek—1111123
WAug 20 · 18:10P. Marsalek—1111113D. Vitasek—5990
LAug 10 · 20:50P. Marsalek—91171292D. Vitasek—1191110113
WAug 10 · 18:45P. Marsalek—1211113D. Vitasek—10570
LAug 3 · 21:05P. Marsalek—871171D. Vitasek—11116113
WAug 3 · 20:10P. Marsalek—1111113D. Vitasek—7820
LMay 8 · 08:15P. Marsalek—811571D. Vitasek—11711113
LApr 16 · 21:15P. Marsalek—881171D. Vitasek—11117113
LApr 16 · 17:45P. Marsalek—8612111D. Vitasek—111110133
WApr 10 · 09:40P. Marsalek—1261111113D. Vitasek—101151372
P. Marsalek10
LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113WAug 26 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.61115118102P. Marsalek2.20911811123
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113
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