TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044884
Played Aug 30Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911911113511––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Vitasek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Daniel Vitasek at 54.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 0–1 Daniel Vitasek Lukas Dzida has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vitasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1520 vs Vitasek 1619
Vitasek
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Vitasek 20%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 40% vs Vitasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +1 · Vitasek -3
Vitasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 2.00 / Vitasek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Vitasek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13044884
Dzida2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 36 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Vitasek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 70 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it67% 53 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDzida0wins
AwayVitasek1wins
Vitasek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDzidaVitasekD − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.036.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 173 vs 293 / 60353.8%48.6%93 / 173 vs 293 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekDzida 2.00/Vitasek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida—991151D. Vitasek—11113113
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113WAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192
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