TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035009
Played Aug 28Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
15131161012118––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 86 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 61.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 18–12 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Chaloupka
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1717 vs Vitasek 1577
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 80% vs Vitasek 60%
Chaloupka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 60% vs Vitasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka +2 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 1.44 / Vitasek 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Chaloupka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13035009
Chaloupka1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 109 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it96% 74 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it74% 95 of 129
Vitasek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 108 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka6wins
AwayVitasek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka85.7%6 of 7
AwayVitasek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka7Vitasek3n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Chaloupka5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Chaloupka6Vitasek4n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S4Chaloupka6Vitasek3n = 9Chaloupka took 6 of 9
S5Chaloupka1Vitasek3n = 4Vitasek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaVitasekC − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.238.7+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 477 vs 289 / 59552.4%48.6%250 / 477 vs 289 / 595Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaChaloupka 1.44/Vitasek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 13:45F. Chaloupka—61312892D. Vitasek—11111011113
WJul 24 · 18:10F. Chaloupka—111110123D. Vitasek—6712101
WJul 18 · 18:40F. Chaloupka—11911113D. Vitasek—511391
WJul 17 · 17:45F. Chaloupka—1111113D. Vitasek—3680
WJun 20 · 17:15F. Chaloupka—11117113D. Vitasek—551181
LJun 20 · 14:45F. Chaloupka—101113662D. Vitasek—1271111113
WJun 6 · 21:15F. Chaloupka—116611113D. Vitasek—91111992
WJun 6 · 19:45F. Chaloupka—11711113D. Vitasek—611641
LMay 30 · 17:40F. Chaloupka—136111372D. Vitasek—1511611113
LMay 24 · 14:40F. Chaloupka—116891D. Vitasek—91111113
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113WAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192
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