TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13034910
Played Aug 28Finished
Daniel Vitasek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411411811––––
Tomas Kindl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Vitasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Vitasek above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 49 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Daniel Vitasek at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Vitasek 4–9 Tomas Kindl Daniel Vitasek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:39What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vitasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Kindl
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1586 vs Kindl 1495
Vitasek
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 60% vs Kindl 20%
Vitasek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 60% vs Kindl 30%
Vitasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek +1 · Kindl -4
Kindl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kindl form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 1.80 / Kindl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vitasek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13034910
Vitasek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 69 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it67% 52 of 78
Kindl1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 50 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVitasek4wins
AwayKindl6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKindl leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVitasek60%3 of 5
AwayKindl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S2Vitasek5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S3Vitasek3Kindl7n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S4Vitasek3Kindl5n = 8Kindl took 5 of 8
S5Vitasek3Kindl2n = 5Vitasek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVitasekKindlV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.945.7−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 599 vs 189 / 38148.4%49.6%290 / 599 vs 189 / 381Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.941.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekVitasek 1.80/Kindl 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kindl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek—4480T. Kindl—1111113
LAug 11 · 17:40D. Vitasek—17713682T. Kindl—15111111113
WJul 13 · 18:45D. Vitasek—118811133T. Kindl—911115112
LJul 11 · 18:45D. Vitasek—613111192T. Kindl—111579113
LJun 25 · 20:45D. Vitasek—8117111T. Kindl—11411133
LJun 25 · 19:40D. Vitasek—11214111T. Kindl—81116133
WJun 17 · 19:40D. Vitasek—8111114113T. Kindl—118131282
WJun 6 · 17:45D. Vitasek—141149113T. Kindl—129111192
LJun 5 · 07:45D. Vitasek—912771T. Kindl—111011113
WMay 11 · 17:40D. Vitasek—1411123T. Kindl—129100
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113WAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192
T. Kindl10
WSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882LSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592LSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991WSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
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