TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13038123
Played Aug 28Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118112116––––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jan Gembala at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 6–6 Daniel Vitasek Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1705 vs Vitasek 1586
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 60% vs Vitasek 40%
Gembala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 60% vs Vitasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala -2 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Gembala) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.30 / Vitasek 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Gembala)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13038123
Gembala1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 81 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 63 of 80
Vitasek3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 108 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala4wins
AwayVitasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala60%3 of 5
AwayVitasek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Gembala3Vitasek7n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S3Gembala5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Gembala4Vitasek3n = 7Gembala took 4 of 7
S5Gembala1Vitasek2n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaVitasekG − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.7+2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 353 vs 290 / 59954.4%48.4%192 / 353 vs 290 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.30/Vitasek 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala—11101191D. Vitasek—91213113
LJul 5 · 05:40J. Gembala—127120D. Vitasek—1411143
WJun 3 · 08:45J. Gembala—101111113D. Vitasek—125781
LJun 3 · 06:40J. Gembala—1110851D. Vitasek—61211113
WMay 12 · 21:15J. Gembala—11611113D. Vitasek—411681
LMay 12 · 19:45J. Gembala—911118122D. Vitasek—114511143
LApr 28 · 08:45J. Gembala—9880D. Vitasek—1111113
WApr 28 · 05:45J. Gembala—1111113D. Vitasek—5970
LApr 8 · 06:40J. Gembala—98111172D. Vitasek—111149113
WFeb 11 · 22:15J. Gembala—118811113D. Vitasek—91111242
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113WAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192
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