TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13034561
Played Aug 28Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11910121113911––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 86 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Gembala at 58.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 6–6 Daniel Vitasek Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gembala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1705 vs Vitasek 1586
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 100% vs Vitasek 40%
Gembala
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 70% vs Vitasek 50%
Gembala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +5 · Vitasek -2
Gembala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Gembala) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.44 / Vitasek 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Gembala)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13034561
Gembala1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 81 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 63 of 80
Vitasek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 108 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala4wins
AwayVitasek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala60%3 of 5
AwayVitasek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Gembala3Vitasek7n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S3Gembala5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Gembala4Vitasek3n = 7Gembala took 4 of 7
S5Gembala1Vitasek2n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaVitasekG − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.7+2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 353 vs 290 / 59954.4%48.4%192 / 353 vs 290 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.44/Vitasek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala—11101191D. Vitasek—91213113
LJul 5 · 05:40J. Gembala—127120D. Vitasek—1411143
WJun 3 · 08:45J. Gembala—101111113D. Vitasek—125781
LJun 3 · 06:40J. Gembala—1110851D. Vitasek—61211113
WMay 12 · 21:15J. Gembala—11611113D. Vitasek—411681
LMay 12 · 19:45J. Gembala—911118122D. Vitasek—114511143
LApr 28 · 08:45J. Gembala—9880D. Vitasek—1111113
WApr 28 · 05:45J. Gembala—1111113D. Vitasek—5970
LApr 8 · 06:40J. Gembala—98111172D. Vitasek—111149113
WFeb 11 · 22:15J. Gembala—118811113D. Vitasek—91111242
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113WAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192
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