TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044916
Played Aug 30Finished
Erik Precek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11861113151113––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Precek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Precek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 88 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Erik Precek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Erik Precek 16–15 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:46What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Precek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-15 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Precek 1563 vs Vitasek 1619
Vitasek
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Precek 40% vs Vitasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Precek 70% vs Vitasek 40%
Precek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Precek -2 · Vitasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrecek 1.80 / Vitasek 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vitasek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13044916
Precek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 43 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it67% 30 of 45
Vitasek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 111 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrecek6wins
AwayVitasek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPrecek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrecek80%4 of 5
AwayVitasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Precek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Precek7Vitasek3n = 10Precek took 7 of 10
S3Precek2Vitasek8n = 10Vitasek took 8 of 10
S4Precek4Vitasek3n = 7Precek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrecekVitasekP − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.337.0+2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrecekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 446 vs 293 / 60347.1%48.6%210 / 446 vs 293 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekPrecek 1.80/Vitasek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek—11613111D. Vitasek—81115133
WAug 16 · 11:15E. Precek—811119153D. Vitasek—116611132
LJul 18 · 20:48E. Precek—78120D. Vitasek—1111143
WJul 18 · 19:40E. Precek—6111712113D. Vitasek—115191092
WJun 27 · 12:45E. Precek—1111113D. Vitasek—9590
LJun 27 · 10:15E. Precek—7970D. Vitasek—1111113
WJun 11 · 06:10E. Precek—11128113D. Vitasek—6101181
LJun 10 · 08:45E. Precek—7115111D. Vitasek—11911133
WJun 10 · 07:15E. Precek—11118113D. Vitasek—771141
WJun 3 · 06:10E. Precek—11118113D. Vitasek—341141
E. Precek10
WSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092LSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071LSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261WSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113LSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LAug 30 · 08:49L. Dzida2.201111113E. Precek1.616870LAug 30 · 06:45E. Precek2.20114861K. Kleprlik1.6191111113
D. Vitasek10
WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113WAug 28 · 18:40J. Gembala1.4411101191D. Vitasek2.6391213113LAug 28 · 18:10F. Chaloupka1.44151110113D. Vitasek2.631361281LAug 27 · 20:45D. Vitasek2.0012560T. Grmela1.731411113WAug 27 · 20:15J. Krupnik1.83511541D. Vitasek1.8311611113WAug 27 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.25111245113T. Grmela1.57810111192
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