TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082567
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711112116––
Erik Precek
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Erik Precek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 57.2%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 16–13 Erik Precek Erik Precek has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1589 vs Precek 1581
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 40% vs Precek 20%
Krupnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 50% vs Precek 30%
Krupnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -1 · Precek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Precek form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.36 / Precek 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Krupnik)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13082567
Krupnik1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 153 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it96% 69 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it72% 109 of 151
Precek3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik5wins
AwayPrecek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik71.4%5 of 7
AwayPrecek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik7Precek3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik5Precek5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik4Precek6n = 10Precek took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik5Precek3n = 8Krupnik took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikPrecekK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.3+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikPrecekBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 848 vs 211 / 44951.2%47%434 / 848 vs 211 / 449Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.36/Precek 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.4%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 11:15J. Krupnik—111113123E. Precek—7515101
LAug 16 · 13:10J. Krupnik—10890E. Precek—1211113
WAug 16 · 12:15J. Krupnik—1111143E. Precek—48120
WAug 8 · 06:15J. Krupnik—111110113E. Precek—581231
LAug 2 · 09:15J. Krupnik—915541E. Precek—111311113
LAug 2 · 08:10J. Krupnik—910111152E. Precek—111275113
WJul 17 · 08:44J. Krupnik—11511113E. Precek—911891
WJul 17 · 06:45J. Krupnik—11114113E. Precek—451161
LJul 13 · 16:45J. Krupnik—13813992E. Precek—11111111113
LJul 13 · 15:15J. Krupnik—1199121E. Precek—41111143
J. Krupnik10
LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152WSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113WSep 4 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.83931151J. Krupnik1.8311119113LSep 4 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.9112143113J. Krupnik1.8010121141WSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113WSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181LSep 4 · 09:40M. Macurak1.77611911113J. Krupnik1.8711811882LSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak1.91611911113J. Krupnik1.8011811882WSep 4 · 07:40J. Skvrna1.73118491J. Krupnik2.0081111113
E. Precek10
WSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 11:15E. Precek2.10571112113T. Krenek1.67111181092LSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113LSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LAug 30 · 08:49L. Dzida2.201111113E. Precek1.616870LAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133LAug 30 · 06:45E. Precek2.20114861K. Kleprlik1.6191111113
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