TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073936
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118115611118––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 58.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 18–14 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-14 in 32
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1603 vs Jr 1636
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 40% vs Jr 20%
Krupnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 40% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.57 / Jr 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Krupnik)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13073936
Krupnik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 151 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it72% 107 of 149
Jr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 118 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back32% 35 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayJr4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik6Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Krupnik6Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik5Jr4n = 9Krupnik took 5 of 9
S5Krupnik2Jr1n = 3Krupnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikJrK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.937.6+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikJrBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 841 vs 253 / 49951.1%50.7%430 / 841 vs 253 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.57/Jr 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 07:10J. Krupnik—15118123D. Jr—13311101
LAug 29 · 15:45J. Krupnik—87111162D. Jr—111194113
WAug 15 · 21:24J. Krupnik—9111112113D. Jr—11451462
WAug 15 · 19:15J. Krupnik—1112113D. Jr—71050
LAug 14 · 07:40J. Krupnik—115891D. Jr—91111113
LAug 7 · 06:10J. Krupnik—91311101D. Jr—11158123
LAug 3 · 08:10J. Krupnik—871171D. Jr—11118113
WAug 2 · 18:15J. Krupnik—11711133D. Jr—6115111
WJul 23 · 06:45J. Krupnik—111112113D. Jr—931441
WJul 17 · 07:45J. Krupnik—115811113D. Jr—81111452
J. Krupnik10
WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152WSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113WSep 4 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.83931151J. Krupnik1.8311119113LSep 4 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.9112143113J. Krupnik1.8010121141WSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40M. Macurak1.77611911113J. Krupnik1.8711811882LSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak1.91611911113J. Krupnik1.8011811882WSep 4 · 07:40J. Skvrna1.73118491J. Krupnik2.0081111113
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123LSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak1.8051111113D. Jr1.91116471LSep 4 · 07:10D. Jr2.2013311101J. Krupnik1.6115118123
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.