TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073972
Played Sep 4Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13153111181012––
Jan Krupnik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 58.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 14–19 Jan Krupnik Dalibor Velky Jr has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-19 in 33
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1601 vs Krupnik 1601
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Krupnik 20%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Krupnik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Krupnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.20 / Krupnik 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Krupnik)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13073972
Jr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 119 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back31% 35 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50
Krupnik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 155 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it73% 111 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayKrupnik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr75%3 of 4
AwayKrupnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Jr5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S4Jr4Krupnik5n = 9Krupnik took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrKrupnikJ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.2−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 504 vs 435 / 84950.4%51.2%254 / 504 vs 435 / 849Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikJr 2.20/Krupnik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 10:10D. Jr—851181J. Krupnik—11116113
LSep 4 · 07:10D. Jr—13311101J. Krupnik—15118123
WAug 29 · 15:45D. Jr—111194113J. Krupnik—87111162
LAug 15 · 21:24D. Jr—11451462J. Krupnik—9111112113
LAug 15 · 19:15D. Jr—71050J. Krupnik—1112113
WAug 14 · 07:40D. Jr—91111113J. Krupnik—115891
WAug 7 · 06:10D. Jr—11158123J. Krupnik—91311101
WAug 3 · 08:10D. Jr—11118113J. Krupnik—871171
LAug 2 · 18:15D. Jr—6115111J. Krupnik—11711133
LJul 23 · 06:45D. Jr—931441J. Krupnik—111112113
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890LSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123LSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak1.8051111113D. Jr1.91116471
J. Krupnik10
WSep 5 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.3611711113E. Precek3.00911261LSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152WSep 5 · 11:15E. Precek2.107515101J. Krupnik1.67111113123LSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113WSep 4 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.83931151J. Krupnik1.8311119113LSep 4 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.9112143113J. Krupnik1.8010121141WSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113WSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181LSep 4 · 09:40M. Macurak1.77611911113J. Krupnik1.8711811882LSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak1.91611911113J. Krupnik1.8011811882
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