TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073958
Played Sep 4Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119118––––
Jan Przybyla
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 59.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 4–3 Jan Przybyla Jan Przybyla has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1607 vs Przybyla 1542
Jr
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Przybyla 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Przybyla 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Przybyla -3
Przybyla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.80 / Przybyla 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Jr)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13073958
Jr1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 84 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it66% 61 of 92
Przybyla1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 56 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayPrzybyla3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderJr leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr80%4 of 5
AwayPrzybylan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Przybyla2n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S2Jr3Przybyla4n = 7Przybyla took 4 of 7
S3Jr5Przybyla2n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S4Jr2Przybyla3n = 5Przybyla took 3 of 5
S5Jr1Przybyla2n = 3Przybyla took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJrPrzybylaJ − PBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match41.038.0+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 501 vs 217 / 41350.5%52.5%253 / 501 vs 217 / 413Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.80/Przybyla 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 28 · 09:20D. Jr—111111113J. Przybyla—981391
WAug 28 · 05:45D. Jr—11411113J. Przybyla—411621
WAug 27 · 06:45D. Jr—118119113J. Przybyla—31171182
LAug 13 · 08:15D. Jr—710110J. Przybyla—1112133
LAug 10 · 05:45D. Jr—91111782J. Przybyla—117611113
WJun 1 · 21:20D. Jr—1113113J. Przybyla—71190
LJun 1 · 17:45D. Jr—113119132J. Przybyla—911911153
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890LSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123LSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak1.8051111113D. Jr1.91116471LSep 4 · 07:10D. Jr2.2013311101J. Krupnik1.6115118123
J. Przybyla10
LSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113WSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 05:45M. Macurak1.5712119113J. Przybyla2.251091181WSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123LSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972LSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113WSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272
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