TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13077333
Played Sep 4Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9119111012––––
Jan Przybyla
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 62 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 60.8%
62 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 5–4 Jan Przybyla Jan Przybyla has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:37What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1611 vs Przybyla 1538
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Przybyla 20%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Przybyla 10%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Przybyla -4
Przybyla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.44 / Przybyla 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Jr)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13077333
Jr1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 84 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it66% 61 of 92
Przybyla2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 56 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeJr5wins
AwayPrzybyla4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderJr leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr83.3%5 of 6
AwayPrzybyla100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Przybyla3n = 9Jr took 6 of 9
S2Jr4Przybyla5n = 9Przybyla took 5 of 9
S3Jr6Przybyla3n = 9Jr took 6 of 9
S4Jr2Przybyla3n = 5Przybyla took 3 of 5
S5Jr1Przybyla2n = 3Przybyla took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricJrPrzybylaJ − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.936.4+2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 503 vs 218 / 41550.5%52.5%254 / 503 vs 218 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.44/Przybyla 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr—99100J. Przybyla—1111123
WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr—1311113J. Przybyla—11980
WAug 28 · 09:20D. Jr—111111113J. Przybyla—981391
WAug 28 · 05:45D. Jr—11411113J. Przybyla—411621
WAug 27 · 06:45D. Jr—118119113J. Przybyla—31171182
LAug 13 · 08:15D. Jr—710110J. Przybyla—1112133
LAug 10 · 05:45D. Jr—91111782J. Przybyla—117611113
WJun 1 · 21:20D. Jr—1113113J. Przybyla—71190
LJun 1 · 17:45D. Jr—113119132J. Przybyla—911911153
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890LSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123LSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak1.8051111113D. Jr1.91116471LSep 4 · 07:10D. Jr2.2013311101J. Krupnik1.6115118123
J. Przybyla10
LSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113WSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 05:45M. Macurak1.5712119113J. Przybyla2.251091181LSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972LSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113WSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272
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