TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13078956
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119911118––
Jan Przybyla
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Macurak at 68.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 2–1 Jan Przybyla Jan Przybyla has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1667 vs Przybyla 1538
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 80% vs Przybyla 20%
Macurak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 50% vs Przybyla 20%
Macurak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +3 · Przybyla +1
Macurak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.57 / Przybyla 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Macurak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13078956
Macurak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 58 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Przybyla2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 56 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back31% 16 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMacurak2wins
AwayPrzybyla1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMacurak leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak1Przybyla2n = 3Przybyla took 2 of 3
S2Macurak3Przybyla0n = 3Macurak took 3 of 3
S3Macurak1Przybyla2n = 3Przybyla took 2 of 3
S4Macurak2Przybyla1n = 3Macurak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMacurakPrzybylaM − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.739.3+5.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 448 vs 218 / 41550.2%52.5%225 / 448 vs 218 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.57/Przybyla 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 24 · 06:45M. Macurak—111165113J. Przybyla—69111182
WJul 1 · 09:15M. Macurak—81111123J. Przybyla—1144101
LJul 1 · 06:45M. Macurak—101181182J. Przybyla—125115113
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112LSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113
J. Przybyla10
LSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113WSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113WSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123LSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972LSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113WSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272
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