TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080383
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111113811––––
Michal Macurak
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:20 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Michal Macurak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 59.3%
61 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 7–2 Michal Macurak Michal Macurak has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:20What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1669 vs Macurak 1672
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 60% vs Macurak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 60% vs Macurak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Macurak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.61 / Macurak 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13080383
Skvrna1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 225 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it74% 157 of 213
Macurak2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 67 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSkvrna7wins
AwayMacurak2wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSkvrna leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna83.3%5 of 6
AwayMacurak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna6Macurak3n = 9Skvrna took 6 of 9
S2Skvrna6Macurak3n = 9Skvrna took 6 of 9
S3Skvrna4Macurak5n = 9Macurak took 5 of 9
S4Skvrna3Macurak4n = 7Macurak took 4 of 7
S5Skvrna4Macurak0n = 4Skvrna took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSkvrnaMacurakS − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match41.138.9+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaMacurakBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 778 vs 228 / 45358%50.3%451 / 778 vs 228 / 453Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.61/Macurak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 4 · 06:40J. Skvrna—711611113M. Macurak—11511842
WJul 29 · 05:45J. Skvrna—14119113M. Macurak—1291171
WJul 28 · 09:40J. Skvrna—511117113M. Macurak—11781162
LJun 26 · 13:30J. Skvrna—971161M. Macurak—11118113
WJun 26 · 11:15J. Skvrna—118611113M. Macurak—71111792
WMay 6 · 17:45J. Skvrna—1111113M. Macurak—5980
WMar 29 · 21:15J. Skvrna—1111113M. Macurak—8790
WMar 29 · 17:45J. Skvrna—1411513113M. Macurak—129111572
LFeb 7 · 18:45J. Skvrna—128951M. Macurak—101111113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113WSep 4 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8381111682J. Skvrna1.83115911113
M. Macurak10
WSep 6 · 21:20M. Macurak1.7041111113J. Travnicek1.96114991WSep 6 · 19:40D. Skulina1.6711119492M. Macurak2.10771111113WSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 18:10M. Macurak1.7311101112153J. Travnicek2.00312614132LSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113LSep 5 · 12:15M. Macurak1.618770E. Precek2.201111113WSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.91611751M. Macurak1.8011611113LSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112LSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112
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