TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076910
Played Sep 4Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113119511811––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 58.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 12–24 Jan Skvrna Frantisek Chaloupka has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-24 in 36
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1665 vs Skvrna 1663
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 40% vs Skvrna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 40% vs Skvrna 60%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka -1 · Skvrna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 2.20 / Skvrna 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13076910
Chaloupka2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 53 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Skvrna1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 222 of 376
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it74% 156 of 211
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka3wins
AwaySkvrna7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkvrna71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S2Chaloupka6Skvrna4n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S3Chaloupka8Skvrna2n = 10Chaloupka took 8 of 10
S4Chaloupka3Skvrna6n = 9Skvrna took 6 of 9
S5Chaloupka1Skvrna5n = 6Skvrna took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaSkvrnaC − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.445.6−3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 491 vs 449 / 77552.3%57.9%257 / 491 vs 449 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaChaloupka 2.20/Skvrna 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 06:10F. Chaloupka—710111862J. Skvrna—1112816113
LAug 15 · 09:40F. Chaloupka—912114102J. Skvrna—1110811123
LAug 15 · 09:40F. Chaloupka—912114102J. Skvrna—1110811123
LAug 13 · 15:10F. Chaloupka—81112101J. Skvrna—11914123
LAug 9 · 14:10F. Chaloupka—118117102J. Skvrna—811911123
WAug 9 · 13:13F. Chaloupka—61111113J. Skvrna—117921
LAug 9 · 10:40F. Chaloupka—1189111J. Skvrna—81111133
LAug 5 · 16:43F. Chaloupka—99111312J. Skvrna—1111811113
WAug 5 · 14:45F. Chaloupka—1211113J. Skvrna—10970
WAug 2 · 11:45F. Chaloupka—111113113J. Skvrna—11981182
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113WSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny2.10117881F. Chaloupka1.6781111113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 4 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8381111682J. Skvrna1.83115911113
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