TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085102
Played Sep 6Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11911137111191113
David Stusek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 106 set 5, 11-13 — our read held David Stusek at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 6–4 David Stusek David Stusek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Chaloupka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1624 vs Stusek 1595
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 20% vs Stusek 40%
Stusek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 40% vs Stusek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka +1 · Stusek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 1.91 / Stusek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stusek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13085102
Chaloupka1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 52 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back32% 19 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Stusek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 26 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka6wins
AwayStusek4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka71.4%5 of 7
AwayStusek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka7Stusek3n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Chaloupka4Stusek6n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S3Chaloupka5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S4Chaloupka5Stusek2n = 7Chaloupka took 5 of 7
S5Chaloupka3Stusek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaStusekC − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.340.9+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 496 vs 89 / 18052%49.4%258 / 496 vs 89 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekChaloupka 1.91/Stusek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka—1111711112D. Stusek—913119133
WAug 26 · 17:03F. Chaloupka—1111113D. Stusek—8760
WAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka—1111159133D. Stusek—781711112
WAug 12 · 14:40F. Chaloupka—138811113D. Stusek—111111732
WJun 21 · 08:45F. Chaloupka—1112113D. Stusek—71080
LJun 21 · 05:45F. Chaloupka—186111172D. Stusek—201186113
LJun 18 · 15:10F. Chaloupka—7980D. Stusek—1111113
LFeb 27 · 16:45F. Chaloupka—111011972D. Stusek—912711113
WFeb 10 · 15:40F. Chaloupka—118811113D. Stusek—91111752
WJan 4 · 08:10F. Chaloupka—81111113D. Stusek—116751
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113WSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny2.10117881F. Chaloupka1.6781111113
D. Stusek10
LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek2.25121147113B. Mrowetz1.57109111182LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860LAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.831111159133D. Stusek1.83781711112WAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek2.387870D. Stusek1.531111113LAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec2.009111110113D. Stusek1.7311561252LAug 23 · 07:15D. Vitasek2.3811611113D. Stusek1.53711861
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.