TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017770
Played Aug 26Finished
David Stusek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210119411711118
Bruno Mrowetz
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held David Stusek at 56.6%
94 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 1–0 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1570 vs Mrowetz 1556
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 20% vs Mrowetz 40%
Mrowetz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 30% vs Mrowetz 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -2 · Mrowetz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mrowetz) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 2.25 / Mrowetz 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stusek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13017770
Stusek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 20 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Mrowetz1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 49 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStusek1wins
AwayMrowetz0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderStusek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStusekMrowetzS − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.049.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 177 vs 220 / 44849.2%49.1%87 / 177 vs 220 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 2.25/Mrowetz 1.57
Miss
What we said
56.1%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek—121147113B. Mrowetz—109111182
D. Stusek10
LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860LAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.831111159133D. Stusek1.83781711112WAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek2.387870D. Stusek1.531111113LAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec2.009111110113D. Stusek1.7311561252LAug 23 · 07:15D. Vitasek2.3811611113D. Stusek1.53711861
B. Mrowetz10
LSep 7 · 09:10L. Lasota2.251113113B. Mrowetz1.5581190LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 11:40J. Krupnik1.83116641B. Mrowetz1.8391111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Stusek
Nothing scheduled
B. Mrowetz
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