TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091319
Played Sep 7Finished
Laurent Lasota
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181311119––––
Bruno Mrowetz
Away
1.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 72.4% is still 72.4%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
72.4%
72.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLaurent Lasota above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 63 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 72.4%
63 points played in total.
H2H Laurent Lasota 1–6 Bruno Mrowetz Laurent Lasota has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mrowetz beat Lasota 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Mrowetz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lasota 1503 vs Mrowetz 1686
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lasota 40% vs Mrowetz 80%
Mrowetz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lasota 30% vs Mrowetz 80%
Mrowetz
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lasota +1 · Mrowetz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Mrowetz) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLasota 2.25 / Mrowetz 1.55
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Mrowetz)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13091319
Lasota2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 46 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Mrowetz1.55
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it79% 57 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLasota1wins
AwayMrowetz6wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMrowetz leads 6–1, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLasota25%1 of 4
AwayMrowetz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lasota4Mrowetz3n = 7Lasota took 4 of 7
S2Lasota4Mrowetz3n = 7Lasota took 4 of 7
S3Lasota0Mrowetz7n = 7Mrowetz took 7 of 7
S4Lasota2Mrowetz4n = 6Mrowetz took 4 of 6
S5Lasota1Mrowetz3n = 4Mrowetz took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricLasotaMrowetzL − MBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match36.942.9−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLasotaMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 277 vs 239 / 47549.5%50.3%137 / 277 vs 239 / 475Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzLasota 2.25/Mrowetz 1.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lasota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 7 · 06:40L. Lasota—11114562B. Mrowetz—661111113
LApr 9 · 08:45L. Lasota—132671B. Mrowetz—111111113
LApr 9 · 08:15L. Lasota—66100B. Mrowetz—1111123
LApr 8 · 05:45L. Lasota—11118992B. Mrowetz—971111113
LApr 5 · 07:10L. Lasota—111101192B. Mrowetz—116128113
LApr 4 · 13:25L. Lasota—1111781B. Mrowetz—13611113
WApr 4 · 10:45L. Lasota—112911113B. Mrowetz—81111182
L. Lasota10
WSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota1.5711711113J. Przybyla2.25311691LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841
B. Mrowetz10
WSep 7 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.671111133R. Benes2.1077110LSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580WSep 5 · 09:16B. Mrowetz1.831181112133M. Macurak1.831311110112WSep 5 · 07:45M. Macurak1.6111541162B. Mrowetz2.20911118113WSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113WSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 11:40J. Krupnik1.83116641B. Mrowetz1.8391111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Lasota
Nothing scheduled
B. Mrowetz
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