TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086663
Played Sep 6Finished
Laurent Lasota
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117911911––
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLaurent Lasota above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Laurent Lasota 5–4 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lasota 1496 vs Dzida 1535
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lasota 20% vs Dzida 60%
Dzida
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lasota 60% vs Dzida 40%
Lasota
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lasota -1 · Dzida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLasota 1.91 / Dzida 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13086663
Lasota1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 46 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Dzida1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 38 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 24 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLasota5wins
AwayDzida4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderLasota leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLasota75%3 of 4
AwayDzida60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lasota4Dzida5n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S2Lasota4Dzida5n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S3Lasota5Dzida4n = 9Lasota took 5 of 9
S4Lasota3Dzida5n = 8Dzida took 5 of 8
S5Lasota3Dzida0n = 3Lasota took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricLasotaDzidaL − DBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match39.240.4−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLasotaDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 271 vs 100 / 18649.8%53.8%135 / 271 vs 100 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaLasota 1.91/Dzida 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 4 · 07:15L. Lasota—128841L. Dzida—101111113
LJul 29 · 12:10L. Lasota—1211391L. Dzida—14611113
LJul 21 · 15:45L. Lasota—761141L. Dzida—11119113
WJul 18 · 17:20L. Lasota—5121111113L. Dzida—11148462
WJul 18 · 16:15L. Lasota—11137113L. Dzida—5111181
LJul 5 · 09:45L. Lasota—511791L. Dzida—11711113
WJun 13 · 13:15L. Lasota—641114123L. Dzida—1111812102
WJun 13 · 09:45L. Lasota—1191112113L. Dzida—81141482
WJun 12 · 11:10L. Lasota—1111113L. Dzida—4990
L. Lasota10
LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WAug 28 · 13:05L. Lasota1.80911511123L. Kantor1.91115114102
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191WSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
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