TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086432
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111189111181311
Tomas Molin
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:37 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 97 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 60.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 4–1 Tomas Molin Tomas Molin has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Dzida
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1529 vs Molin 1506
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 40% vs Molin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 40% vs Molin 70%
Molin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -1 · Molin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.73 / Molin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Molin)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13086432
Dzida1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 38 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 24 of 38
Molin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 21 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDzida4wins
AwayMolin1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderDzida leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida100%3 of 3
AwayMolinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida3Molin2n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S2Dzida3Molin2n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S3Dzida2Molin3n = 5Molin took 3 of 5
S4Dzida3Molin2n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDzidaMolinD − MBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.038.2+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 185 vs 144 / 27453.5%52.6%99 / 185 vs 144 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.73/Molin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 14:15L. Dzida—91111113T. Molin—118851
WAug 15 · 15:10L. Dzida—113911113T. Molin—71111772
WJul 29 · 10:40L. Dzida—112115123T. Molin—511711102
LJul 24 · 13:19L. Dzida—6111051T. Molin—11312113
WJul 24 · 10:45L. Dzida—11117113T. Molin—961191
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191WSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113WAug 19 · 19:15J. Volny2.00771281T. Molin1.73111110113
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