TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459750
Played Aug 19Finished
Jakub Volny
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7117111210811––
Tomas Molin
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Volny above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Molin at 56.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Volny 4–8 Tomas Molin Jakub Volny has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Molin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Molin
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volny 1461 vs Molin 1528
Molin
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volny 80% vs Molin 60%
Volny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volny 70% vs Molin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volny +4 · Molin +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Molin) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolny 2.00 / Molin 1.73
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Molin)+6.0pp
TT Cup · #12459750
Volny2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 48 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Molin1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolny3wins
AwayMolin7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolny28.6%2 of 7
AwayMolin66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volny7Molin3n = 10Volny took 7 of 10
S2Volny4Molin6n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S3Volny3Molin7n = 10Molin took 7 of 10
S4Volny5Molin4n = 9Volny took 5 of 9
S5Volny2Molin5n = 7Molin took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolnyMolinV − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.743.1−1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolnyMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 316 vs 140 / 26747.5%52.4%150 / 316 vs 140 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinVolny 2.00/Molin 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 20:10J. Volny—11101011102T. Molin—612128123
LJul 8 · 17:45J. Volny—11771182T. Molin—511119113
LJul 6 · 21:15J. Volny—121071182T. Molin—1012119113
WJul 6 · 19:10J. Volny—411711113T. Molin—11911852
LMar 14 · 09:10J. Volny—61181162T. Molin—116116113
WFeb 28 · 10:40J. Volny—113118113T. Molin—41161182
LFeb 10 · 10:20J. Volny—1171061T. Molin—91112113
LFeb 10 · 07:10J. Volny—611111192T. Molin—118313113
WFeb 9 · 09:15J. Volny—1111113T. Molin—8960
LJan 30 · 07:40J. Volny—115661T. Molin—71111113
J. Volny10
WSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981WSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381LSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113LAug 29 · 09:09J. Volny1.57811771O. Kus2.2511611113WAug 29 · 07:40J. Volny1.731111113V. Reska2.006960
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113
Upcoming Matches
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T. Molin
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