TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062956
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Molin
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811811511––
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Molin at 59.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 1–2 Lukas Dzida Tomas Molin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1569 vs Dzida 1520
Molin
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 100% vs Dzida 60%
Molin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 80% vs Dzida 50%
Molin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin +5 · Dzida +2
Molin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 2.00 / Dzida 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13062956
Molin2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 20 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Dzida1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 34 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 23 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMolin1wins
AwayDzida2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDzida leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin1Dzida2n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
S2Molin1Dzida2n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
S3Molin2Dzida1n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S4Molin2Dzida1n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMolinDzidaM − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.737.7+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 270 vs 93 / 17353%53.8%143 / 270 vs 93 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaMolin 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 29 · 10:40T. Molin—511711102L. Dzida—112115123
WJul 24 · 13:19T. Molin—11312113L. Dzida—6111051
LJul 24 · 10:45T. Molin—961191L. Dzida—11117113
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113WAug 19 · 19:15J. Volny2.00771281T. Molin1.73111110113
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
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