TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086795
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Molin
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115117411911117
Laurent Lasota
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Molin at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 4–9 Laurent Lasota Tomas Molin has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lasota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Lasota
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1550 vs Lasota 1477
Molin
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 40% vs Lasota 20%
Molin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 60% vs Lasota 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin +1 · Lasota -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lasota) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 1.83 / Lasota 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lasota)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13086795
Molin1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Lasota1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolin4wins
AwayLasota6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLasota leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolin57.1%4 of 7
AwayLasota100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin7Lasota3n = 10Molin took 7 of 10
S2Molin5Lasota5n = 10split evenly
S3Molin3Lasota7n = 10Lasota took 7 of 10
S4Molin3Lasota5n = 8Lasota took 5 of 8
S5Molin1Lasota2n = 3Lasota took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolinLasotaM − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.737.7−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 276 vs 135 / 27252.5%49.6%145 / 276 vs 135 / 272Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LasotaMolin 1.83/Lasota 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lasota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 05:40T. Molin—7101461L. Lasota—111212113
LJul 30 · 09:15T. Molin—11115752L. Lasota—751111113
LJul 30 · 07:10T. Molin—116551L. Lasota—51111113
LJul 29 · 12:38T. Molin—11511182L. Lasota—711119113
WJul 29 · 09:40T. Molin—11811113L. Lasota—811841
WJul 12 · 12:15T. Molin—111176113L. Lasota—75111162
LJul 10 · 08:40T. Molin—710100L. Lasota—1112123
WJul 10 · 07:45T. Molin—11115113L. Lasota—391161
WJun 21 · 13:15T. Molin—1113113L. Lasota—41190
LJun 21 · 09:45T. Molin—911561L. Lasota—11711113
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113WAug 19 · 19:15J. Volny2.00771281T. Molin1.73111110113
L. Lasota10
LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WAug 28 · 13:05L. Lasota1.80911511123L. Kantor1.91115114102
Upcoming Matches
T. Molin
Nothing scheduled
L. Lasota
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.