TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459824
Played Aug 19Finished
Daniel Branny
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311118311511––
Tomas Molin
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:41 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Branny above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 63 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Molin at 57.4%
63 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Branny 2–7 Tomas Molin Daniel Branny has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Molin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Molin
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Branny 1535 vs Molin 1538
Molin
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Branny 80% vs Molin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Branny 50% vs Molin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Branny +1 · Molin +4
Molin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Molin) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBranny 2.25 / Molin 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Molin)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12459824
Branny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Molin1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBranny2wins
AwayMolin7wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMolin leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrannyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMolin85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Branny2Molin7n = 9Molin took 7 of 9
S2Branny7Molin2n = 9Branny took 7 of 9
S3Branny3Molin6n = 9Molin took 6 of 9
S4Branny1Molin7n = 8Molin took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away667%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricBrannyMolinB − MBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match38.342.0−3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrannyMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 314 vs 141 / 26852.2%52.6%164 / 314 vs 141 / 268Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinBranny 2.25/Molin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 16 · 20:44D. Branny—11119111T. Molin—13811133
WAug 16 · 19:40D. Branny—611811113T. Molin—11911882
LJul 31 · 19:15D. Branny—811961T. Molin—1191183
LJul 21 · 18:45D. Branny—611681T. Molin—11711113
LJul 8 · 19:45D. Branny—1451481T. Molin—161112113
LJul 6 · 18:10D. Branny—4111081T. Molin—11812113
WJun 14 · 18:40D. Branny—1111113T. Molin—5680
LMar 4 · 15:40D. Branny—7121161T. Molin—11143113
LJan 9 · 21:10D. Branny—11176772T. Molin—9151111113
D. Branny10
WSep 1 · 20:45J. Przybyla1.738750D. Branny2.001111113LSep 1 · 20:15A. Kanak1.571211123D. Branny2.25109100WSep 1 · 19:15D. Branny2.0011118113J. Travnicek1.73781161LSep 1 · 17:45J. Przybyla1.67116811123D. Branny2.10611119102WAug 21 · 08:48L. Lasota1.6110760D. Branny2.201211113LAug 21 · 07:40D. Branny1.7311119772A. Kanak2.00791111113LAug 21 · 06:40D. Branny1.6111181152L. Kantor2.20116116113LAug 21 · 05:40D. Branny2.10116881L. Lasota1.6781111113WAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761WAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:15J. Volny2.00771281T. Molin1.73111110113
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