TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12467463
Played Aug 21Finished
Daniel Branny
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611811811––
Laurent Lasota
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLaurent Lasota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Branny above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Laurent Lasota at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Branny 3–5 Laurent Lasota Daniel Branny has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lasota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Lasota
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Branny 1546 vs Lasota 1536
Branny
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Branny 60% vs Lasota 100%
Lasota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Branny 60% vs Lasota 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Branny +1 · Lasota +5
Lasota
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lasota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBranny 2.10 / Lasota 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lasota)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12467463
Branny2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 27 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Lasota1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 56 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBranny3wins
AwayLasota5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLasota leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBranny100%3 of 3
AwayLasota100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Branny3Lasota5n = 8Lasota took 5 of 8
S2Branny4Lasota4n = 8split evenly
S3Branny3Lasota5n = 8Lasota took 5 of 8
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricBrannyLasotaB − LBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match29.930.2−0.3per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrannyLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 316 vs 127 / 25452.2%50%165 / 316 vs 127 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LasotaBranny 2.10/Lasota 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lasota · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lasota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 17 · 09:45D. Branny—412160L. Lasota—1114183
LAug 14 · 08:15D. Branny—91191192L. Lasota—119115113
WJul 22 · 18:10D. Branny—1111113L. Lasota—7550
LJul 17 · 21:09D. Branny—7650L. Lasota—1111113
LJul 17 · 19:40D. Branny—9870L. Lasota—1111113
WJun 14 · 21:10D. Branny—1112113L. Lasota—51030
LJun 14 · 17:40D. Branny—4750L. Lasota—1111113
WApr 10 · 20:10D. Branny—1111113L. Lasota—6750
D. Branny10
WSep 1 · 20:45J. Przybyla1.738750D. Branny2.001111113LSep 1 · 20:15A. Kanak1.571211123D. Branny2.25109100WSep 1 · 19:15D. Branny2.0011118113J. Travnicek1.73781161LSep 1 · 17:45J. Przybyla1.67116811123D. Branny2.10611119102WAug 21 · 08:48L. Lasota1.6110760D. Branny2.201211113LAug 21 · 07:40D. Branny1.7311119772A. Kanak2.00791111113LAug 21 · 06:40D. Branny1.6111181152L. Kantor2.20116116113WAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113WAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791
L. Lasota10
WSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota1.5711711113J. Przybyla2.25311691LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LAug 21 · 08:48L. Lasota1.6110760D. Branny2.201211113
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