TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063826
Played Sep 2Finished
Karel Baros
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117117––––
Tomas Molin
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Molin to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Baros above · Tomas Molin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Molin at 60.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 3–7 Tomas Molin Karel Baros has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Molin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Molin
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1471 vs Molin 1556
Molin
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 40% vs Molin 80%
Molin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 50% vs Molin 70%
Molin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +1 · Molin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Molin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.10 / Molin 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Molin)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13063826
Baros2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 18 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back33% 8 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Molin1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 54 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it71% 34 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros3wins
AwayMolin7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros0%0 of 3
AwayMolin57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros3Molin7n = 10Molin took 7 of 10
S2Baros5Molin5n = 10split evenly
S3Baros4Molin6n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S4Baros5Molin4n = 9Baros took 5 of 9
S5Baros1Molin3n = 4Molin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosMolinB − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.041.3−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 253 vs 143 / 27154.6%52.8%138 / 253 vs 143 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinBaros 2.10/Molin 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.2%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 15:45K. Baros—111191172T. Molin—137117113
LJul 15 · 16:50K. Baros—62111142T. Molin—111188113
LJul 15 · 15:10K. Baros—129891T. Molin—101111113
WJul 2 · 15:45K. Baros—31111193T. Molin—1183171
LJun 23 · 15:15K. Baros—11331192T. Molin—711116113
LFeb 20 · 19:45K. Baros—1181181T. Molin—81113113
LFeb 14 · 07:45K. Baros—9790T. Molin—1111113
LFeb 6 · 19:15K. Baros—1014771T. Molin—121211113
WDec 21 · 14:45K. Baros—612116113T. Molin—111061182
WDec 10 · 15:40K. Baros—81111113T. Molin—114131
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113WAug 19 · 19:15J. Volny2.00771281T. Molin1.73111110113
Upcoming Matches
K. Baros
Nothing scheduled
T. Molin
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