Tomas Lysek vs Karel Baros 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13034904

Played Aug 28Finished

Tomas Lysek

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

911117117119––

Karel Baros

Away

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%

Graded at full time

Karel Baros to win

56.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingTomas Lysek above · Karel Baros below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 10-9

Point 75 set 4, 10-9 — our read held Karel Baros at 56.6%

75 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.

H2H Tomas Lysek 6–6 Karel Baros Dead even across their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 09:40

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Baros

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

6-6 in 12

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Lysek 1518 vs Baros 1457

Lysek

Correct

both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Lysek 60% vs Baros 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lysek 40% vs Baros 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Lysek +1 · Baros -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baros) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLysek 2.00 / Baros 1.73

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Baros)+0.3pp

TT Cup · #13034904

Lysek2.00

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog48% won 19 of 40

Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7

Baros1.73

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite64% won 61 of 96

Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31

Up 1–0, closes it88% 42 of 48

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLysek5wins

AwayBaros5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLysek50%2 of 4

AwayBaros50%3 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Lysek4Baros6n = 10Baros took 6 of 10

S2Lysek5Baros5n = 10split evenly

S3Lysek7Baros3n = 10Lysek took 7 of 10

S4Lysek3Baros5n = 8Baros took 5 of 8

S5Lysek2Baros2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricLysekBarosL − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.7−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLysekBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 221 vs 137 / 25253.9%54.4%119 / 221 vs 137 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Baros

Lysek 2.00/Baros 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Baros · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Lysek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek—91111113K. Baros—117791

WJul 19 · 15:15T. Lysek—31211113K. Baros—1110991

WJul 8 · 15:45T. Lysek—1381110113K. Baros—111131282

LMay 3 · 14:10T. Lysek—251141K. Baros—11115113

LMay 2 · 18:10T. Lysek—11211362K. Baros—711411113

LFeb 27 · 19:45T. Lysek—111151272K. Baros—781114113

LFeb 20 · 21:50T. Lysek—411851K. Baros—11811113

LFeb 20 · 19:15T. Lysek—127100K. Baros—1411123

WFeb 15 · 18:15T. Lysek—1111113K. Baros—7540

WFeb 15 · 15:10T. Lysek—671112113K. Baros—111151052

T. Lysek10

WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113 WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132 LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112 WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113 WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113 LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981 LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123 LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101 WAug 28 · 17:10O. Kus2.107690T. Lysek1.671111113 WAug 28 · 14:45T. Lysek1.83111011113V. Reska1.83812991

K. Baros10

WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113 WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780 LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892 WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113 WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113 LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671 WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770 WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113 LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123 LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092

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