TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13037068
Played Aug 28Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611911––––
Tomas Lysek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:40 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Tomas Lysek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 62.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 4–1 Tomas Lysek Tomas Lysek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lysek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1417 vs Lysek 1498
Lysek
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 60% vs Lysek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 50% vs Lysek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus +3 · Lysek +2
Kus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Lysek) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.10 / Lysek 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Lysek)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13037068
Kus2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog46% won 71 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Lysek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKus4wins
AwayLysek1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKus leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus100%3 of 3
AwayLysekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus3Lysek2n = 5Kus took 3 of 5
S2Kus2Lysek3n = 5Lysek took 3 of 5
S3Kus3Lysek2n = 5Kus took 3 of 5
S4Kus2Lysek1n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKusLysekK − LBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.235.4+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusLysekBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 499 vs 118 / 22050.1%53.6%250 / 499 vs 118 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysekKus 2.10/Lysek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Lysek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 28 · 13:45O. Kus—991111113T. Lysek—11118972
WAug 24 · 10:15O. Kus—119111113T. Lysek—71171172
WJan 17 · 07:10O. Kus—11114113T. Lysek—961151
WDec 28 · 21:45O. Kus—1113113T. Lysek—71150
LDec 28 · 21:15O. Kus—78100T. Lysek—1111123
O. Kus10
LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 18:40O. Kus1.67811117113K. Przeczek2.1011951192LSep 1 · 17:40O. Kus1.8371111882J. Vanous1.83116611113WAug 29 · 09:09J. Volny1.57811771O. Kus2.2511611113WAug 29 · 08:10O. Kus1.501111113J. Coufal2.507890
T. Lysek10
WSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113WSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132LSep 5 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.53111176133T. Lysek2.38571111112WSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113WSep 5 · 16:45L. Kantor1.8091161162T. Lysek1.90118118113LSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981LSep 5 · 15:15T. Lysek1.80118511102A. Kanak1.91711118123LSep 5 · 13:45L. Kantor2.0011117123T. Lysek1.737611101WAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791WAug 28 · 14:45T. Lysek1.83111011113V. Reska1.83812991
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