TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071279
Played Sep 3Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711811––––
Vojtech Molin
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Vojtech Molin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 4–2 Vojtech Molin Vojtech Molin has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Molin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1407 vs Molin 1404
Kus
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 40% vs Molin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 50% vs Molin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus -2 · Molin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 1.83 / Molin 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kus)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13071279
Kus1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Molin1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKus4wins
AwayMolin2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKus leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus75%3 of 4
AwayMolinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus4Molin1n = 5Kus took 4 of 5
S2Kus4Molin1n = 5Kus took 4 of 5
S3Kus1Molin4n = 5Molin took 4 of 5
S4Kus2Molin2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKusMolinK − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.835.4+4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusMolinBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 509 vs 61 / 13350.1%45.9%255 / 509 vs 61 / 133Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusKus 1.83/Molin 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 19 · 21:03O. Kus—11125113V. Molin—7101191
LAug 19 · 19:10O. Kus—116891V. Molin—71111113
WAug 10 · 14:15O. Kus—811911113V. Molin—11211662
WJun 21 · 16:10O. Kus—1111113V. Molin—7750
WDec 16 · 11:15O. Kus—111245113V. Molin—810111152
O. Kus10
LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 18:40O. Kus1.67811117113K. Przeczek2.1011951192LSep 1 · 17:40O. Kus1.8371111882J. Vanous1.83116611113WAug 29 · 09:09J. Volny1.57811771O. Kus2.2511611113WAug 29 · 08:10O. Kus1.501111113J. Coufal2.507890LAug 29 · 06:40J. Volny1.571210118113O. Kus2.25101291162
V. Molin10
WSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192WSep 4 · 18:10V. Molin2.101111123K. Przeczek1.6728100WSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 20:15V. Molin1.91811951K. Przeczek1.8011711113LSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WSep 2 · 20:40O. Skvor1.5771070V. Molin2.251112113LSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 18:40V. Molin1.919570O. Skvor1.801111113
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