TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071380
Played Sep 3Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6117111210511––
Filip Theodor
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Filip Theodor below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 60.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 5–5 Filip Theodor Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:40What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1393 vs Theodor 1454
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 40% vs Theodor 80%
Theodor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 50% vs Theodor 80%
Theodor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus -3 · Theodor +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kus) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 1.73 / Theodor 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Theodor)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13071380
Kus1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 49 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Theodor2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog33% won 17 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus5wins
AwayTheodor5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus100%4 of 4
AwayTheodor83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus4Theodor6n = 10Theodor took 6 of 10
S2Kus7Theodor3n = 10Kus took 7 of 10
S3Kus4Theodor6n = 10Theodor took 6 of 10
S4Kus1Theodor4n = 5Theodor took 4 of 5
S5Kus2Theodor1n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusTheodorK − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.836.1−1.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 510 vs 76 / 16650%45.8%255 / 510 vs 76 / 166Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusKus 1.73/Theodor 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 17:20O. Kus—1111113F. Theodor—5850
LAug 10 · 16:15O. Kus—101111652F. Theodor—129311113
LApr 12 · 20:10O. Kus—7370F. Theodor—1111113
LApr 9 · 20:45O. Kus—61090F. Theodor—1112113
LApr 9 · 18:45O. Kus—813351F. Theodor—111111113
WFeb 24 · 16:45O. Kus—1111123F. Theodor—89100
LJan 29 · 22:25O. Kus—89120F. Theodor—1111143
WJan 29 · 19:15O. Kus—111179113F. Theodor—97111152
WDec 9 · 22:20O. Kus—71111133F. Theodor—1176111
WDec 9 · 20:10O. Kus—111375113F. Theodor—611111162
O. Kus10
LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:45O. Kus1.6711911262K. Przeczek2.10311811113LSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670WSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 18:40O. Kus1.67811117113K. Przeczek2.1011951192LSep 1 · 17:40O. Kus1.8371111882J. Vanous1.83116611113WAug 29 · 09:09J. Volny1.57811771O. Kus2.2511611113WAug 29 · 08:10O. Kus1.501111113J. Coufal2.507890LAug 29 · 06:40J. Volny1.571210118113O. Kus2.25101291162
F. Theodor10
LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551WAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113WAug 31 · 17:40F. Theodor1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.387650WAug 30 · 17:09O. Skvor1.578630F. Theodor2.251111113LAug 30 · 15:45F. Theodor2.00113741O. Skvor1.7371111113WAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor1.83117118113P. Jokiel1.8371171172
Upcoming Matches
O. Kus
Nothing scheduled
F. Theodor
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.