TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051879
Played Aug 31Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111191012114118
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Filip Theodor at 58.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 2–0 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1382 vs Jokiel 1436
Jokiel
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 60% vs Jokiel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 70% vs Jokiel 50%
Theodor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor -1 · Jokiel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Theodor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.57 / Jokiel 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Theodor)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13051879
Theodor1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite35% won 9 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Jokiel2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 79 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back38% 24 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTheodor2wins
AwayJokiel0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderTheodor leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTheodorJokielT − JBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match45.536.0+9.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 162 vs 192 / 40744.4%47.2%72 / 162 vs 192 / 407Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.57/Jokiel 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor—117118113P. Jokiel—71171172
WFeb 5 · 18:45F. Theodor—101111113P. Jokiel—123591
F. Theodor10
LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113WAug 31 · 17:40F. Theodor1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.387650WAug 30 · 17:09O. Skvor1.578630F. Theodor2.251111113LAug 30 · 15:45F. Theodor2.00113741O. Skvor1.7371111113WAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor1.83117118113P. Jokiel1.8371171172
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor1.83117118113P. Jokiel1.8371171172
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