TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082583
Played Sep 5Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
1.68
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811311811––––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.98
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:51 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePatrik Jokiel to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-10
Point 51 set 3, 8-10 — our read held Patrik Jokiel at 54.9%
51 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 9–5 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Skvor has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Jokiel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Jokiel
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1409 vs Skvor 1387
Jokiel
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Skvor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 50% vs Skvor 30%
Jokiel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Skvor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jokiel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.68 / Skvor 1.98
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Jokiel)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13082583
Jokiel1.68
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 41 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Skvor1.98
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel6wins
AwaySkvor4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJokiel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel83.3%5 of 6
AwaySkvor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel6Skvor4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S2Jokiel5Skvor5n = 10split evenly
S3Jokiel5Skvor5n = 10split evenly
S4Jokiel3Skvor3n = 6split evenly
S5Jokiel2Skvor1n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielSkvorJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.2+2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 415 vs 62 / 12447%50%195 / 415 vs 62 / 124Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokielJokiel 1.68/Skvor 1.98
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 10:10P. Jokiel—111110113O. Skvor—661281
LAug 30 · 14:15P. Jokiel—1191071O. Skvor—91112113
LAug 15 · 10:15P. Jokiel—108111172O. Skvor—121123113
LAug 15 · 08:50P. Jokiel—82100O. Skvor—1111123
WAug 15 · 06:45P. Jokiel—814119113O. Skvor—111251192
WAug 7 · 15:15P. Jokiel—11117113O. Skvor—591191
WJul 25 · 16:15P. Jokiel—1115113O. Skvor—51340
WJul 18 · 10:40P. Jokiel—1111113O. Skvor—7690
LJul 11 · 21:15P. Jokiel—3980O. Skvor—1111113
WJul 11 · 19:10P. Jokiel—114118113O. Skvor—81171182
P. Jokiel10
WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482WAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki1.571281291P. Jokiel2.25101114113
O. Skvor10
WSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123WSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113LSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.67661281J. Patrik2.10111110113LSep 2 · 20:40O. Skvor1.5771070V. Molin2.251112113LSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113
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