TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081589
Played Sep 5Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181197111214911
Martin Lorenc
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Martin Lorenc below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 1-4
Point 88 set 5, 1-4 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
88 points drawn · the score is 15 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 1–2 Martin Lorenc Ondrej Skvor has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1412 vs Lorenc 1471
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 60% vs Lorenc 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 40% vs Lorenc 60%
Lorenc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +3 · Lorenc +1
Skvor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.91 / Lorenc 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvor)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13081589
Skvor1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Lorenc1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite43% won 18 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it63% 10 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkvor1wins
AwayLorenc2wins
Lorenc leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor1Lorenc2n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S2Skvor1Lorenc2n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S3Skvor1Lorenc2n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkvorLorencS − LBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.035.7−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 125 vs 56 / 13250.4%42.4%63 / 125 vs 56 / 132Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.91/Lorenc 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 9 · 13:15O. Skvor—6123131M. Lorenc—111011153
LJun 9 · 11:45O. Skvor—9930M. Lorenc—1111113
WApr 18 · 16:10O. Skvor—11811113M. Lorenc—611821
O. Skvor10
WSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123WSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.67661281J. Patrik2.10111110113LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 2 · 20:40O. Skvor1.5771070V. Molin2.251112113LSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
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