TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073602
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161171412––––
Peter Chvojka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 61 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 5–6 Peter Chvojka Martin Lorenc has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1478 vs Chvojka 1308
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 60% vs Chvojka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 50% vs Chvojka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +2 · Chvojka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.73 / Chvojka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13073602
Lorenc1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite41% won 16 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Chvojka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLorenc4wins
AwayChvojka6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChvojka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc60%3 of 5
AwayChvojka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S2Lorenc2Chvojka8n = 10Chvojka took 8 of 10
S3Lorenc5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S4Lorenc4Chvojka5n = 9Chvojka took 5 of 9
S5Lorenc3Chvojka2n = 5Lorenc took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLorencChvojkaL − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.043.9−4.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 128 vs 133 / 28942.2%46%54 / 128 vs 133 / 289Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.73/Chvojka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 17:23M. Lorenc—11211113P. Chvojka—811971
LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc—6111091P. Chvojka—11312113
WAug 10 · 09:45M. Lorenc—111158113P. Chvojka—99111192
LJul 9 · 12:50M. Lorenc—5450P. Chvojka—1111113
LJul 9 · 09:45M. Lorenc—1112641P. Chvojka—71411113
LMay 30 · 10:40M. Lorenc—251113102P. Chvojka—1111311123
WMay 16 · 17:25M. Lorenc—124118123P. Chvojka—1011711102
LMay 16 · 14:45M. Lorenc—1311111382P. Chvojka—1513911113
WMay 1 · 12:45M. Lorenc—8101111113P. Chvojka—11126792
LMay 1 · 12:10M. Lorenc—119831P. Chvojka—81111113
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lorenc
Nothing scheduled
P. Chvojka
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