TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071373
Played Sep 3Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1121012113811115
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 4–3 Ivan Jemelka Ivan Jemelka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1290 vs Jemelka 1428
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 40% vs Jemelka 80%
Jemelka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 50% vs Jemelka 80%
Jemelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka +1 · Jemelka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 2.00 / Jemelka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jemelka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13071373
Chvojka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Jemelka1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 17 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChvojka4wins
AwayJemelka3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderChvojka leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvojka75%3 of 4
AwayJemelka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvojka4Jemelka3n = 7Chvojka took 4 of 7
S2Chvojka6Jemelka1n = 7Chvojka took 6 of 7
S3Chvojka1Jemelka6n = 7Jemelka took 6 of 7
S4Chvojka4Jemelka2n = 6Chvojka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricChvojkaJemelkaC − JBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.739.6+0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 286 vs 46 / 9745.8%47.4%131 / 286 vs 46 / 97Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaChvojka 2.00/Jemelka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 24 · 09:15P. Chvojka—7111011132I. Jemelka—119127153
WAug 24 · 06:15P. Chvojka—11115113I. Jemelka—751181
LAug 12 · 09:25P. Chvojka—713981I. Jemelka—111111113
LAug 12 · 08:15P. Chvojka—137361I. Jemelka—111111113
WAug 10 · 12:55P. Chvojka—912711123I. Jemelka—1110115102
WAug 10 · 12:15P. Chvojka—11115113I. Jemelka—781181
WJun 18 · 13:45P. Chvojka—1111113I. Jemelka—8960
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113LAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus2.0074100I. Jemelka1.731111123
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvojka
I. Jemelka
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