TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015824
Played Aug 26Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7114111012––––
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:04 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 55 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 1–3 Ivan Jemelka Jiri Matus has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:04What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jemelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Jemelka
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1308 vs Jemelka 1419
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 20% vs Jemelka 80%
Jemelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 40% vs Jemelka 80%
Jemelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -2 · Jemelka +4
Jemelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.00 / Jemelka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Jemelka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13015824
Matus2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Jemelka1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 17 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMatus1wins
AwayJemelka3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJemelka leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatusn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJemelka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus1Jemelka3n = 4Jemelka took 3 of 4
S2Matus2Jemelka2n = 4split evenly
S3Matus0Jemelka4n = 4Jemelka took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricMatusJemelkaM − JBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match30.539.5−9.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 391 vs 45 / 9651.7%46.9%202 / 391 vs 45 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaMatus 2.00/Jemelka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus—74100I. Jemelka—1111123
LAug 1 · 09:45J. Matus—6117101I. Jemelka—11811123
LJul 6 · 05:45J. Matus—6680I. Jemelka—1111113
WJul 1 · 18:45J. Matus—111555113I. Jemelka—713111172
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113LAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920
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