TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051551
Played Aug 31Finished
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119811411113117
Jiri Matus
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:56 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Vaclahovsky above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 58.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Vaclahovsky 8–4 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vaclahovsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Vaclahovsky
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclahovsky 1362 vs Matus 1298
Vaclahovsky
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclahovsky 60% vs Matus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclahovsky 60% vs Matus 40%
Vaclahovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclahovsky +1 · Matus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Vaclahovsky) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclahovsky 1.50 / Matus 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13051551
Vaclahovsky1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Matus2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 8 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclahovsky7wins
AwayMatus3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVaclahovsky leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclahovsky85.7%6 of 7
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclahovsky7Matus3n = 10Vaclahovsky took 7 of 10
S2Vaclahovsky7Matus3n = 10Vaclahovsky took 7 of 10
S3Vaclahovsky3Matus7n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S4Vaclahovsky5Matus3n = 8Vaclahovsky took 5 of 8
S5Vaclahovsky3Matus1n = 4Vaclahovsky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclahovskyMatusV − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.836.7+4.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclahovskyMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 233 vs 205 / 39845.5%51.5%106 / 233 vs 205 / 398Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyVaclahovsky 1.50/Matus 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 10:10O. Vaclahovsky—1111113J. Matus—5770
WJul 22 · 12:44O. Vaclahovsky—111178113J. Matus—35111172
LJul 22 · 11:15O. Vaclahovsky—911641J. Matus—11611113
WJun 7 · 07:10O. Vaclahovsky—111011113J. Matus—912491
WJun 4 · 09:15O. Vaclahovsky—10111011113J. Matus—12912562
LJun 4 · 07:45O. Vaclahovsky—116761J. Matus—71111113
WMar 29 · 21:15O. Vaclahovsky—16117113J. Matus—1421171
LMar 29 · 18:10O. Vaclahovsky—111191142J. Matus—137117113
WJan 1 · 21:15O. Vaclahovsky—1111113J. Matus—7680
WJan 1 · 15:15O. Vaclahovsky—118511123J. Matus—911119102
O. Vaclahovsky10
LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113WSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113WSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762LSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
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