TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13052004
Played Aug 31Finished
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11912101113711117
Peter Chvojka
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Vaclahovsky above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 102 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Vaclahovsky 4–4 Peter Chvojka Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vaclahovsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclahovsky 1355 vs Chvojka 1276
Vaclahovsky
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclahovsky 40% vs Chvojka 60%
Chvojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclahovsky 50% vs Chvojka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclahovsky -2 · Chvojka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vaclahovsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclahovsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclahovsky 1.80 / Chvojka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13052004
Vaclahovsky1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Chvojka1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 38 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVaclahovsky4wins
AwayChvojka4wins
6 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclahovskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChvojka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclahovsky2Chvojka6n = 8Chvojka took 6 of 8
S2Vaclahovsky6Chvojka2n = 8Vaclahovsky took 6 of 8
S3Vaclahovsky4Chvojka4n = 8split evenly
S4Vaclahovsky3Chvojka4n = 7Chvojka took 4 of 7
S5Vaclahovsky3Chvojka3n = 6split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricVaclahovskyChvojkaV − CBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match39.943.5−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclahovskyChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 237 vs 130 / 28545.6%45.6%108 / 237 vs 130 / 285Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyVaclahovsky 1.80/Chvojka 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky—1112117113P. Chvojka—910131172
LJul 8 · 10:45O. Vaclahovsky—9560P. Chvojka—1111113
LJul 1 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky—51151132P. Chvojka—118118113
WMar 29 · 15:10O. Vaclahovsky—116111113P. Chvojka—81191152
LFeb 7 · 11:15O. Vaclahovsky—61191162P. Chvojka—115118113
LDec 23 · 08:15O. Vaclahovsky—101111712P. Chvojka—128511113
WDec 19 · 17:10O. Vaclahovsky—913118113P. Chvojka—111191152
WDec 13 · 07:40O. Vaclahovsky—41111113P. Chvojka—116781
O. Vaclahovsky10
LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113WSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113WSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762LSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052LAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152LAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181
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