TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051611
Played Sep 1Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411811––––
Jiri Matus
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:15 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 58.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 1–2 Jiri Matus Peter Chvojka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:15What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chvojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1276 vs Matus 1317
Matus
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 40% vs Matus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 40% vs Matus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka -2 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chvojka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.57 / Matus 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chvojka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13051611
Chvojka1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 33 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Matus2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 8 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChvojka1wins
AwayMatus2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMatus leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvojkan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvojka0Matus3n = 3Matus took 3 of 3
S2Chvojka1Matus2n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
S3Chvojka1Matus2n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricChvojkaMatusC − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match34.037.7−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 285 vs 207 / 40245.6%51.5%130 / 285 vs 207 / 402Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaChvojka 1.57/Matus 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka—7480J. Matus—1111113
LAug 31 · 16:45P. Chvojka—961181J. Matus—11119113
WDec 14 · 06:45P. Chvojka—6111011113J. Matus—11312482
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvojka
J. Matus
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