TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13052001
Played Sep 1Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118113511611
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 10–5 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Matus
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1317 vs Jnr 1346
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Jnr 40%
Matus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Jnr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.73 / Jnr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13052001
Matus1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 96 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Jnr2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 25 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back36% 9 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus7wins
AwayJnr3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMatus leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus100%5 of 5
AwayJnr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S2Matus7Jnr3n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S3Matus7Jnr3n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S4Matus4Jnr3n = 7Matus took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusJnrM − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.134.5+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 402 vs 128 / 24051.5%53.3%207 / 402 vs 128 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.73/Jnr 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus—81111562J. Jnr—118311113
LAug 23 · 16:48J. Matus—911771J. Jnr—11911113
WAug 23 · 15:45J. Matus—11611143J. Jnr—5116121
WJul 20 · 11:15J. Matus—41111113J. Jnr—117541
WJul 19 · 19:15J. Matus—1411117113J. Jnr—128131162
LJul 1 · 21:15J. Matus—8690J. Jnr—1111113
WJul 1 · 17:45J. Matus—11712113J. Jnr—9111091
WJun 19 · 20:15J. Matus—1111113J. Jnr—2930
WJun 16 · 05:45J. Matus—1211113J. Jnr—10870
WMay 29 · 20:40J. Matus—81112113J. Jnr—1181081
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152WAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
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