TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058622
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012811––––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 11–17 Lukas Krupnik Jr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-17 in 28
Jr
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1322 vs Jr 1334
Jr
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Jr 20%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 30% vs Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -2 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Jr 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13058622
Jnr1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Jr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayJr7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%3 of 4
AwayJr100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jnr3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jnr4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr4Jr3n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S5Jnr2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrJrJnr − JrBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.0−1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrJrBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 242 vs 220 / 41752.9%52.8%128 / 242 vs 220 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJnr 1.83/Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 16:54J. Jnr—5490L. Jr—1111113
LAug 28 · 15:10J. Jnr—68111142L. Jr—111168113
LAug 27 · 09:40J. Jnr—681141L. Jr—11116113
WAug 23 · 19:45J. Jnr—135711113L. Jr—111111642
LAug 9 · 21:20J. Jnr—8111111102L. Jr—119137123
WAug 9 · 19:40J. Jnr—1111113L. Jr—6950
WJul 19 · 17:45J. Jnr—111169133L. Jr—571111112
LJul 14 · 19:15J. Jnr—1110891L. Jr—71211113
LJul 14 · 17:25J. Jnr—98100L. Jr—1111123
LJul 14 · 15:45J. Jnr—99111182L. Jr—111149113
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152WAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462
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