TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086687
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911311119811
Richard Jancak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Richard Jancak at 61.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 10–16 Richard Jancak Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-16 in 26
Jancak
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1323 vs Jancak 1200
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Jancak 0%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Jancak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -3 · Jancak -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jancak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.25 / Jancak 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Jancak)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13086687
Jr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 82 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back38% 26 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Jancak1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it67% 40 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayJancak6wins
Jancak leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr37.5%3 of 8
AwayJancakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr8Jancak2n = 10Jr took 8 of 10
S2Jr3Jancak7n = 10Jancak took 7 of 10
S3Jr4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S4Jr3Jancak6n = 9Jancak took 6 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrJancakJr − JancakBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.536.0+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 429 vs 135 / 27352.7%49.5%226 / 429 vs 135 / 273Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJr 2.25/Jancak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 19:10L. Jr—119991R. Jancak—91111113
LAug 23 · 18:45L. Jr—115831R. Jancak—41111113
WAug 22 · 09:19L. Jr—11815113R. Jancak—3111341
LAug 22 · 06:40L. Jr—911471R. Jancak—11411113
LAug 16 · 19:45L. Jr—111471R. Jancak—51111113
WAug 8 · 16:44L. Jr—111211113R. Jancak—314591
WAug 8 · 14:40L. Jr—1112103R. Jancak—61080
LAug 3 · 19:45L. Jr—1111691R. Jancak—71311113
WJul 29 · 21:08L. Jr—91113113R. Jancak—1181131
LJul 29 · 19:15L. Jr—1191391R. Jancak—81115113
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123WSep 3 · 11:15R. Sedivy2.007650R. Jancak1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
R. Jancak
Nothing scheduled
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